Thursday, March 11, 2010

Why Nevada's Politics Mattters - The Reid Race Will Become America's First 2012 Presidential Primary

By Ned Barnett

The Nevada election to unseat Harry Reid is the only truly National election this year. Harry Reid - Majority Leader and the only candidate in the line of Presidential Succession - is facing an uphill battle to hang on as Senator - in large part because, as Senate Majority Leader, he has become the Senior Senator from MoveOn.org instead of the Senior Senator of Nevada. And Nevadans are tired of being represented by a San Francisco-like far-left aparatchik instead of a center-right Nevadan.

No other national official, no other individual in line of succession to the Presidency, is facing a seriously-contested election race. So the importance of this election is all out of proportion to the size of Nevada's population. This means that Nevada will be in a spotlight of surpassing intensity - and every candidate for the Senate (and, because they might be indicators of the outcome, every candidate for any U.S. House seat from Nevada), will be under an electron microscope. Their every utterance since grade school will be examined for consistency with the new grass roots orthodoxy, the new emphasis on constitutional conservatism.

This is good and it's bad, since the national media will try - as they successfully tried with John McCain - to anoint Nevada Republicans' choice for candidate, and to tell Nevada's voters who they really want in Washington. Which means, the media being what they are, that the media's darling for the Republican nominee will be the most pragmatically moderate rather than the most dogmatically Constitutional. All the candidates will be claiming to be conservatives - to determine who's telling the truth, look at those candidates that the out-of-state mainstream media tries hardest to ignore.

This also means that there will be dozens (or more) outside political action groups - each with their own axes to grind - descending on Nevada, pumping money into ad campaigns advocating one candidate or the other ... with no real concern about Nevada. All they care about is their cause; which means the political discourse in Nevada between now and the first Tuesday in November will be fragmented - maybe even fractured.

For candidates who know it's important to stay on messages, this will be a huge challenge. Others, purportedly supporting them, will be using their own messages, and tying those messages around candidates necks like long-dead albatrosses. You've already seen some of this - ads that say, "call Harry Reid and thank him for ____ (fill in your own radical left message)." This will start hitting Republican candidates soon, and they'll wind up having to answer to the media for ads and messages that did not come from their campaigns.

In addition, and even more important, the run up to the election to dethrone Harry Reid will be, in essence, the first Presidential Primary of 2012. Not officially, of course, but the election to replace Ried will be, de facto, the first presidential primary. This will focus even more national media attention on Nevada's elections. It will also focus national money as never before - but with that money will come the media (who always follow the money), who'll be busy telling us poor ignorant back-woods (or back-arroyo) Nevada Republicans who we should support.

All of the serious national presidential candidates-to-be will see this primary and subsequent general election as a beauty pageant. They'll be eagerly showing the national media that they can attract crowds, raise money and motivate volunteers - all the things necessary to win primaries and the Presidential election.

Obama is going to be here later this week (as I write this). Tim Pawlenty will be here shortly. Mitt is certain to drop by, and Sarah will be here on March 27th. Chairman Steele has been almost commuting here ... the writing's on the wall.

This is a great opportunity for Nevada conservatives - especially those who are part of the authentic tea party/grass roots/constitutional conservative movement - to influence national politics. Not only will we be working to replace Harry Reid, we will also be helping to shape the media and voting public's perception - nationwide - of the strengths and weaknesses of the likely (and not so likely) 2012 Republican Presidential candidates. In effect, we may help influence whether or not President Obama is a one-termer like Jimmy Carter or a two-termer like Bill Clinton. It's a heady opportunity, and a heady responsibility - one that no other state shares with us.

Which means that we'll have to decide - do we support a conservative on principle, or do we go with the person the media tells us is most likely to be selected in the primary (because he or she is the most likely to retire Harry Reid in the fall). Which is more important - electability or principle.

For me, I'm tired of the lesser of two evils, and after John McCain, I'm mortally tired of the national media telling us who ought to be our Republican candidate. However, I only have one vote. I'll make mine count - but if you're a grass roots conservative, I ask you to be sure to make yours count, too.

Ned Barnett
ned@barnettmarcom.com


You may use or reprint this without permission on the following terms:

1. If you are from the news media, you may quote any part of this blog with attribution (please don't take it out of context)
2. If you're a blogger, re-publish this in full, unedited
3. Credit the author, Ned Barnett
4. Note that it is republished with permission
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Thank you - Ned Barnett
ned-at-barnettmarcom-dot-com

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